Bluejays set sights on Purple Aces in MVC action

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/07/2012 - Evansville, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Knocked down a few of pegs in the latest top-25 poll, the Creighton Bluejays now head to Evansville ranked as the 17th- best team in the nation as they clash with the Purple Aces in Missouri Valley Conference action tonight at the Ford Center.

Since losing to Missouri State in the conference opener back on December 28, the Bluejays had put together a sizeable 11-game win streak which was one of the longest in Division I, but that all came crashing down over the weekend. On Saturday afternoon, Creighton was stumped by Northern Iowa on the road, 65-62, which means the Jays are now 11-2 in MVC play and that has them tied with Wichita State at the top of the league standings entering the week.

As for the Purple Aces, in a span of just three days the team went to the extremes and have now lost three of their last four outings. Six days ago, the squad leveled Bradley on the road by a score of 92-62, but then on Saturday Evansville was halted by Southern Illinois in a 53-52 final and that has the team now staring at a 6-7 conference record, which has them tied with Northern Iowa and Drake for fifth place at the moment.

The Jays are comfortably ahead in the all-time series with Evansville, posting 25 wins in 34 opportunities. The Aces have certainly played better in their own building over the years with seven victories, but still Creighton has won the last three on the road. Overall, the Bluejays have taken six in a row, including a 75-69 final in the most recent matchup last season.

Aside from a single 60-56 win for Evansville at home back in 2008, the series has been dominated by the Jays (12-1) since 2005. The teams are set to meet on Creighton's home floor two weeks from now to complete the season series.

Doug McDermott put together a solid double-double for the Bluejays with 18 points and 12 rebounds, yet he didn't lead his own team in either category exclusively and that should have been reason enough to believe it wasn't Creighton's day on Saturday. Matching McDermott on the glass was Gregory Echenique, and surpassing him in the scoring department was Antoine Young who dropped in 23 points, shooting 9-of-21 from the floor, as the group made good on 42.1 percent from the field and just 5-of-16 behind the three-point line. McDermott, one of the top scorers in the country (23.4 ppg) who is widely considered a candidate for player of the year honors on a national scale, is one of the hardest players to cover for a defense because he is equally as dangerous in the paint with his 8.4 rpg as he is out on the perimeter with a staggering 51.3 percent shooting from three-point range. Because of his efforts, the Jays as a whole are making good on 44.8 percent beyond the arc as they net an average of 81.0 ppg.

Over the course of just a few days, the Purple Aces had their scoring output nearly cut in half as they fell to SIU in Carbondale, shooting just 18-of-44 from the floor which means they finished with just two more made baskets than they had turnovers. Colt Ryan posted 13 points and Kenny Harris another 10 for the Aces, the former accounting for two of the unit's four three-point baskets. Ryan has been the leading scorer for the team in each of the last three games and five of the last six contests, his 20.8 ppg making him one of the top overall performers in the MVC this season. Not only does Ryan connect at 43.2 percent behind the three-point line, he is also one of the team leaders with 71 assists and 4.5 rpg, doing everything he can to make Evansville successful. Unfortunately, with the defense giving up 72.3 ppg and the offense posting 74.1 ppg, Ryan and his teammates don't leave much room for error.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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